What are the most likely things that would happen in the next three months? How would the governments deal with the virus? Here's our theory.
The whole world is going into a standstill due to the raging epidemic – places that were once bursting with life have devolved into ghost towns, with massive restrictions on travels and gatherings. This is an unprecedented unparalleled global response to one of the biggest ever modern epidemics – but how would it eventually end? In this article, we would discuss some of the most possible ways that this Coronavirus issue is going to be resolved.
Current statistics of the virus
What are the most likely approaches that humanity is going to do in the next few months? Even if the growth of cases dies down in the next three months, it would still take a long time for the tide to be over – even years. It is rather clear that the current strategy of shutting down the whole society in quarantine is not something that could be applied for long - the economic and social damage would be catastrophic.
There are essentially 3 ways for countries to get out of this mess:
1 – Vaccination
More than three dozens companies and governments in the world are researching to create vaccines for this plague. However, as vaccines are not an immediately applicable “cure”, the testing period could take at least 12 months or even more.
One of the volunteers for the experimental Coronavirus vaccine (that was never tested on animals)
With enough people under vaccines (about 60%), a concept is known as “herd immunity” would be created and prevent the virus from creating an outbreak. The US is at the forefront of creating a vaccine, as a company was allowed to skip the animal testing to go straight for human tests. While the whole world is working on the vaccine at an unprecedented level, there is no guarantee that it would be successful in time. And even if it was created, it would still need to be applied globally.
2 – Natural Immunity
Herd immunity could be developed naturally by driving down cases as much as possible while curing existing ones. Recovered people would develop antibodies and become immune to the virus, and after a sufficient amount of time, a fraction of the population would be immune and create some degree of community protection.
The world's fastest supercomputer is working on decoding the virus
However, the effectiveness of this method is rather questionable, as Covid-19 causes very weak immune responses and a person can be re-infected by the virus. This method would also take much more time than the first one, with the lowest estimate being 2 years.
3 – Permanent behavior changes
This method would involve drastic changes in human behavior to drive down the transmission rates like mandatory face masks, isolation, mass testing, early detection, and contact tracing to drive the infection rate down to the minimum – this would certainly cause a lot of problem in the short term but its effect would show immediately. This method is really hard to apply, as it would require a huge amount of resources and cooperation from a lot of people to actually work, which is not something that could be done in every country, especially one as large as India.
Ways to prevent the spread of Coronavirus
Overall, no matter which method our country is going to follow, it is expected that the Coronavirus would slow down once summer hit. Based on various researches, the reason that Coronavirus has not been much of a problem in Africa is because of the region's hot weather - the outer shell of the virus can be neutralized by heat, which in turn disable its ability to transmit.
The whole world is going into a standstill due to the raging epidemic – places that were once bursting with life have devolved into ghost towns, with massive restrictions on travels and gatherings. This is an unprecedented unparalleled global response to one of the biggest ever modern epidemics – but how would it eventually end? In this article, we would discuss some of the most possible ways that this Coronavirus issue is going to be resolved.
What are the most likely approaches that humanity is going to do in the next few months? Even if the growth of cases dies down in the next three months, it would still take a long time for the tide to be over – even years. It is rather clear that the current strategy of shutting down the whole society in quarantine is not something that could be applied for long - the economic and social damage would be catastrophic.
There are essentially 3 ways for countries to get out of this mess:
1 – Vaccination
More than three dozens companies and governments in the world are researching to create vaccines for this plague. However, as vaccines are not an immediately applicable “cure”, the testing period could take at least 12 months or even more.
With enough people under vaccines (about 60%), a concept is known as “herd immunity” would be created and prevent the virus from creating an outbreak. The US is at the forefront of creating a vaccine, as a company was allowed to skip the animal testing to go straight for human tests. While the whole world is working on the vaccine at an unprecedented level, there is no guarantee that it would be successful in time. And even if it was created, it would still need to be applied globally.
2 – Natural Immunity
Herd immunity could be developed naturally by driving down cases as much as possible while curing existing ones. Recovered people would develop antibodies and become immune to the virus, and after a sufficient amount of time, a fraction of the population would be immune and create some degree of community protection.
However, the effectiveness of this method is rather questionable, as Covid-19 causes very weak immune responses and a person can be re-infected by the virus. This method would also take much more time than the first one, with the lowest estimate being 2 years.
3 – Permanent behavior changes
This method would involve drastic changes in human behavior to drive down the transmission rates like mandatory face masks, isolation, mass testing, early detection, and contact tracing to drive the infection rate down to the minimum – this would certainly cause a lot of problem in the short term but its effect would show immediately. This method is really hard to apply, as it would require a huge amount of resources and cooperation from a lot of people to actually work, which is not something that could be done in every country, especially one as large as India.
Overall, no matter which method our country is going to follow, it is expected that the Coronavirus would slow down once summer hit. Based on various researches, the reason that Coronavirus has not been much of a problem in Africa is because of the region's hot weather - the outer shell of the virus can be neutralized by heat, which in turn disable its ability to transmit.
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